Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability

Contents:

Author Info

  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Favero, Carlo A.
  • Roffia, Barbara

Abstract

The long-run relationship between money and prices in the euro area embedded in traditional money demand models with income and interest rates broke down after 2001. We develop a money demand model where investors hold a diversified portfolio with money, domestic and foreign stocks and long-term bonds in which, in addition to the classical wealth effect, also a size and an international portfolio allocation effects arise. The estimated model identifies three cointegrating vectors stable over the sample 1980-2007: a long-run money demand, which depends on income and all risky assets' returns, and two equilibria for the euro area and the US financial markets. Steady state equilibrium of nominal M3 growth is estimated to be about 7% in 2007 with large standard errors mainly due to uncertainty in asset prices. The gap between actual euro area M3 growth and model-based fitted or predicted values helps forecast euro area inflation. JEL Classification: E41, E44, E52, G11, G15

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp926.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0926.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080926

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Euro area money demand; Inflation forecasts; monetary policy; portfolio allocation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Warne, Anders & Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0255, European Central Bank.
  3. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859, October.
  4. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working Papers 103, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  5. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"," NBER Working Papers 15024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
  9. Zenon Kontolemis G., 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 02/185, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M., Universite Aix-Marseille III 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  12. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," FIW Working Paper series, FIW 119, FIW.
  13. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  14. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
  15. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Money at Low Frequencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  18. Drumetz, F. & Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Brun, M. & Dreyfus, A. & Oung, V. & Sahuc, J-G., 2005. "La fonction de demande de monnaie pour la zone euro : un réexamen," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 142, pages 23-39.
  19. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1290, European Central Bank.
  20. Funke, Michael, 2001. "Money demand in Euroland," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 701-713, October.
  21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Stock market downswing and the stability of European monetary union money demand," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 19940, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  23. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  24. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
  25. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  26. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
  27. Vuolteenaho, Tuomo & Campbell, John, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," Scholarly Articles 3196090, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  28. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
  29. John B. Carlson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Benjamin D. Keen & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Working Paper 9917, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  30. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
  31. Koivu, Matti & Pennanen, Teemu & Ziemba, William T., 2005. "Cointegration analysis of the Fed model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 248-259, December.
  32. Mike Artis & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "Issues in Money Demand: The Case of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 717-736, November.
  33. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
  34. Beyer, Andreas, 2009. "A Stable Model for Euro Area Money Demand: Revisiting the Role of Wealth," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1111, European Central Bank.
  35. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  36. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
  37. Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0745, European Central Bank.
  38. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
  39. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2010. "On the Sources of Euro Area Money Demand Stability. A Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  41. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, October.
  42. Lemke, Wolfgang & Greiber, Claus, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Franz Seitz & Markus A. Schmidt, 2014. "Money In Modern Macro Models: A Review of the Arguments," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 156-174.
  2. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07041 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  4. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2013. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and its Implications for Monetary Policy," LEM Papers Series 2013/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  5. Ralph Setzer & Guntram B. Wolff, 2009. "Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 373, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Arratibel, Olga & Kamps, Christophe & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1015, European Central Bank.
  7. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "OLong-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0237, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  8. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 860, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
  11. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2010. "On the Sources of Euro Area Money Demand Stability. A Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.