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Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability

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  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Favero, Carlo A.
  • Roffia, Barbara

Abstract

The long-run relationship between money and prices in the euro area embedded in traditional money demand models with income and interest rates broke down after 2001. We develop a money demand model where investors hold a diversified portfolio with money, domestic and foreign stocks and long-term bonds in which, in addition to the classical wealth effect, also a size and an international portfolio allocation effects arise. The estimated model identifies three cointegrating vectors stable over the sample 1980-2007: a long-run money demand, which depends on income and all risky assets' returns, and two equilibria for the euro area and the US financial markets. Steady state equilibrium of nominal M3 growth is estimated to be about 7% in 2007 with large standard errors mainly due to uncertainty in asset prices. The gap between actual euro area M3 growth and model-based fitted or predicted values helps forecast euro area inflation. JEL Classification: E41, E44, E52, G11, G15

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0926.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080926

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Keywords: Euro area money demand; Inflation forecasts; monetary policy; portfolio allocation;

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Dreger & J¨¹rgen Wolters, 2011. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong are the Linkages?," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 43-52, February.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
  3. Ralph Setzer & Guntram Wolff, 2013. "Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 297-315, June.
  4. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2013. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and its Implications for Monetary Policy," LEM Papers Series 2013/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  5. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
  6. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2010. "On the Sources of Euro Area Money Demand Stability. A Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "OLong-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 0237, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  8. Arratibel, Olga & Kamps, Christophe & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank.
  9. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo Group Munich.

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