Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Alessi, Lucia
  • Barigozzi, Matteo
  • Capasso, Marco

Abstract

We review, under a historical perspective, the development of the problem of nonfundamentalness of Moving Average (MA) representations of economic models. Nonfundamentalness typically arises when agents’ information space is larger than the econometrician’s one. Therefore it is impossible for the latter to use standard econometric techniques, as Vector AutoRegression (VAR), to estimate economic models. We restate the conditions under which it is possible to invert an MA representation in order to get an ordinary VAR and identify the shocks, which in a VAR are fundamental by construction. By reviewing the work by Lippi and Reichlin [1993] we show that nonfundamental shocks may be very different from fundamental shocks. Therefore, nonfundamental representations should not be ruled out by assumption and indeed methods to detect nonfundamentalness have been recently proposed in the literature. Moreover, Structural VAR (SVAR) can be legitimately used for assessing the validity of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models only if the representation associated with the economic model is fundamental. Factor models can be an alternative to SVAR for validation purposes as they do not have to deal with the problem of nonfundamentalness. JEL Classification: C32, C51, C52

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp922.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0922.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080922

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

Related research

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Factor models; Nonfundamentalness; Structural VAR;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 12772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 653-58, June.
  4. Futia, Carl A, 1981. "Rational Expectations in Stationary Linear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(1), pages 171-92, January.
  5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
  6. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series 0865, European Central Bank.
  7. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 0712, European Central Bank.
  8. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
  10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "A,B,C's (and D's)'s for Understanding VARS," Levine's Bibliography 172782000000000096, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
  12. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "VAR analysis, non-fundamental representations, Blashke matrices," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10151, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2006. "Assessing structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 866, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2007. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 1-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2004. "A Critique of Structural VARs Using Real Business Cycle Theory," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000518, UCLA Department of Economics.
  17. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2006. "VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 257-279, May.
  18. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10125, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  19. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2013. "Design limits and dynamic policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2710-2728.
  20. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the effects of fiscal policy," Working Papers 07-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  22. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2008. "What We Don'T Know About The Monetary Transmission Mechanism And Why We Don'T Know It," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 60-74, April.
  23. Kenneth Kasa & Todd B. Walker & Charles H. Whiteman, 2006. "Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Perpetually Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders," Caepr Working Papers 2006-010, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  24. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1996. "Dynamic common factors in large cross-sections," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10149, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  25. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. University of California & Giacomo Rondina, 2008. "Incomplete Information and Informative Pricing: Theory and Application," 2008 Meeting Papers 981, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  27. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  29. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  30. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  31. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2007. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 524-529, March.
  32. Klaeffling, Matt, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 0228, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Noncausal Vector Autoregression," MPRA Paper 23717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," Working Papers 47/2008, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  3. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Fève, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," TSE Working Papers 12-287, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Working Papers 07/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  6. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2009. "Dynamic macroeconomic effects of public capital: evidence from regional Italian data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 733, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.