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Modelling and forecasting the yield curve under model uncertainty

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Author Info
Paola Donati () (DG-Research, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Francesco Donati () (Politecnico of Torino, Department of Control and Computer Engineering, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Torino, Italy.)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a procedure to investigate the nature and persistence of the forces governing the yield curve and to use the extracted information for forecasting purposes. The latent factors of a model of the Nelson-Siegel type are directly linked to the maturity of the yields through the explicit description of the cross-sectional dynamics of the interest rates. The intertemporal dynamics of the factors is then modeled as driven by long-run forces giving rise to enduring effects, and by medium- and short-run forces producing transitory effects. These forces are reconstructed in real time with a dynamic filter whose embedded feedback control recursively corrects for model uncertainty, including additive and parameter uncertainty and possible equation misspecifications and approximations. This correction sensibly enhances the robustness of the estimates and the accuracy of the out-of-sample forecasts, both at short and long forecast horizons. JEL Classification: G1, E4, C5.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 917.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080917

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Related research
Keywords: Yield curve; Model uncertainty; Frequency decomposition; Monetary policy.;

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  1. Mark Fisher & Douglas Nychka & David Zervos, 1995. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates with smoothing splines," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Working Paper Series 2007-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bent Jesper Christensen & Tomas Björk, . "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Management Working Papers 1999-4, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Laura Coroneo & Ken Nyholm & Rositsa Vidova-Koleva, 2008. "How Arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 874, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Vasicek, Oldrich A & Fong, H Gifford, 1982. " Term Structure Modeling Using Exponential Splines," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 339-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Brick, John R & Thompson, Howard E, 1978. "Time Series Analysis of Interest Rates: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 93-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates across frequencies," Working Paper Series 976, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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