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Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area - does national information help?

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Author Info
Riccardo Cristadoro () (Banca d’Italia, Research Department, via Nazionale 91, I – 00184 Rome, Italy.)
Fabrizio Venditti () (Banca d’Italia, Research Department, via Nazionale 91, I – 00184 Rome, Italy.)
Giuseppe Saporito () (Banca d’Italia, Research Department, via Nazionale 91, I – 00184 Rome, Italy.)

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Abstract

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether in order to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. In both cases our findings point to the conclusion that, once area wide information is properly taken into account, there is little to be gained from considering national idiosyncratic developments. JEL Classification: C25, E37, E52.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 900.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080900

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; dynamic factor model; inflation; Taylor rule; monetary policy.;

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  1. Lars E O Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7, pages 1-34, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 631, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kai CARSTENSEN & Roberta COLAVECCHIO, 2006. "The ECB Monetary Policy and its Taylor-type Reaction Function," Rivista Italiana degli Economisti, SIE - Societa' Italiana degli Economisti (I), vol. 1(3), pages 51-86, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  12. Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 11473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  16. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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