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House prices and the stance of monetary policy

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Author Info
Marek Jarocinski () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Frank Smets () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper estimates a Bayesian VAR for the US economy which includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions. Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal GDP and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks on the economy? How does monetary policy affect the housing market? What are the implications of house price developments for the stance of monetary policy? Regarding the latter question, we implement a version of a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) due to Céspedes et al. (2006). JEL Classification: E3-E4.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 891.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080891

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Related research
Keywords: House prices monetary conditions index Bayesian VAR monetary policy shock conditional forecast.

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2002. "Optimal monetary policy with durable goods and non-durable goods," Working Paper Series 179, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 13518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption? : The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  8. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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