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Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area

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  • Calza, Alessandro
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    Abstract

    This paper tests whether the proposition that globalisation has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the global output gap (the “global output gap hypothesis”) holds for the euro area. The empirical analysis uses quarterly data over the period 1979-2003. Measures of the global output gap using two different weighting schemes (based on PPPs and trade data) are considered. We find little evidence that global capacity constraints have either explanatory or predictive power for domestic consumer price inflation in the euro area. Based on these findings, the prescription that central banks should specifically react to developments in global output gaps does not seem to be justified for the euro area. JEL Classification: E3, F4

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0890.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080890

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    Keywords: global output gap; Globalisation; inflation;

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    Cited by:
    1. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Global Slack and Domestic Inflation Rates: A Structural Investigation for G-7 Countries," Working Papers 080919, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2009. "The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 1011, European Central Bank.
    3. Jordi Galí, 2010. "Commentary: Inflation Pressures and Monetary Policy in a Global Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 93-102, March.

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