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Credit and the natural rate of interest

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Author Info
Fiorella De Fiore () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Oreste Tristani () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

We analyze the of the natural rate of interest in an economy where nominal debt contracts generate a spread between loan rates and the policy interest rate. In our model, monetary policy has real effects in the flexible-price equilibrium, because it affects the credit spread. Relying on a definition suitable for this environment, we demonstrate that: (i) the natural rate is independent of monetary policy and (ii) it delivers price stability, if used as the intercept of a monetary policy rule. The second result hold exactly if real balances are remunerated at a constand spread below policy interest rates, approximately otherwise. We also highlight, however, that the natural rate is not robust to model uncertainty. The natural rate reacts differently to aggregate shocks - not only quantitatively but also qualitatively - depending on the underlying model assumptions (e.g. whether or not financial markets are frictionless). JEL Classification: E40, E50, G10.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 889.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080889

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy natural rate of interest credit frictions.

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajsek, 2004. "The magnitude and cyclical behavior of financial market frictions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Timothy S. Fuerst & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1998. "Agency costs and business cycles," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 583-597. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2008-9-24.

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