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Imperfect predictability and mutual fund dynamics. How managers use predictors in changing systematic risk

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  • Amisano, Gianni
  • Savona, Roberto

Abstract

Suppose a fund manager uses predictors in changing port-folio allocations over time. How does predictability translate into portfolio decisions? To answer this question we derive a new model within the Bayesian framework, where managers are assumed to modulate the systematic risk in part by observing how the benchmark returns are related to some set of imperfect predictors, and in part on the basis of their own information set. In this portfolio allocation process, managers concern themselves with the potential benefits arising from the market timing generated by benchmark predictors and by private information. In doing this, we impose a structure on fund returns, betas, and bench-mark returns that help to analyse how managers really use predictors in changing investments over time. The main findings of our empirical work are that beta dynamics are significantly affected by economic variables, even though managers do not care about bench-mark sensitivities towards the predictors in choosing their instrument exposure, and that persistence and leverage effects play a key role as well. Conditional market timing is virtually absent, if not negative, over the period 1990-2005. However such anomalous negative timing ability is offset by the leverage effect, which in turn leads to an increase in mutual fund extra performance. JEL Classification: C11, C13, G12, G13

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0881.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080881

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Keywords: Bayesian analysis; conditional asset pricing models; Equity mutual funds; time-varying beta;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2009. "Decentralized provision of merit and impure public goods," Working Papers, University of Brescia, Department of Economics 0909, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  2. Alberto Bisin & John Geanakoplos & Piero Gottardi & Enrico Minelli & Heracles Polemarchakis, 2009. "Markets and Contracts," Working Papers, University of Brescia, Department of Economics 0915, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  3. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains Taxation in the Real World," CESifo Working Paper Series 2674, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Alessandro Fedele & Raffaele Miniaci, 2010. "Do Social Enterprises Finance Their Investments Differently from For-profit Firms? The Case of Social Residential Services in Italy," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 174-189, October.
  5. Alessandro Fedele & Francesco Liucci & Andrea Mantovani, 2009. "Credit availability in the crisis: the European investment bank group," Working Papers, University of Brescia, Department of Economics 0913, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  6. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax Rate Uncertainty," Working Papers 2010.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Martin Meier & Enrico Minelli & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2009. "Competitive Markets with Private Information on Both Sides," Working Papers, University of Brescia, Department of Economics 0917, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  8. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers, University of Brescia, Department of Economics 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  9. Del Boca, Alessandra & Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco & Trecroci, Carmine, 2010. "The Phillips curve and the Italian lira, 1861-1998," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 182-197, August.

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