Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?
AbstractThis paper evaluates how well sectoral stock prices forecast future economic activity compared to traditional predictors such as the term spread, dividend yield, exchange rates and money growth. The study is applied to euro area financial asset prices and real economic growth, covering the period 1973 to 2006. The paper finds that the term spread is the best predictor of future growth in the period leading up to the introduction of Monetary Union. After 1999, however, sectoral stock prices in general provide more accurate forecasts than traditional asset price measures across all forecast horizons. JEL Classification: C52, C53
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0876.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Other versions of this item:
- Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008. "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-03-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2008-03-01 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2008-03-01 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2008-03-01 (Macroeconomics)
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