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Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy

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  • Nickel, Christiane
  • Rother, Philipp
  • Theophilopoulou, Angeliki

Abstract

This paper aims to address the issue of public pension reforms under demographic ageing that is likely to occur in Europe over the next 50 years. Three possible scenarios are analysed in a Blanchard OLG framework. These include: i) a decrease both in public pensions and the lump sum labour income tax, ii) a decrease both in public pensions and the distortionary corporate tax, iii) an increase in the retirement age. The analysis focuses on the effects of these fiscal policies on key economic variables such as consumption, private and public debt, output and wages. Quantitative experiments assess the impact of different fiscal policies in terms of public debt sustainability but most importantly suggest policies that smooth the transition of the economy to the new equilibrium. The main results suggest that the adverse effects of pension reforms on consumption are moderated when they are accompanied by appropriate taxation policies. In particular, when the tax response is rapid most of the adverse movement in consumption is avoided while public and national debt reach lower equilibrium levels. JEL Classification: E6, H3, J1, H55

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0863.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080863

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Keywords: Ageing; overlapping generations; Pension Reforms; Taxation;

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  2. Søren Nielsen, 1994. "Social security and foreign indebtedness in a small open economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 47-63, March.
  3. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2004. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks," Discussion Paper 2004-90, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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  7. Jonathan Temple, 2003. "The Long-Run implications of Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 497-510, 07.
  8. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2004. "The New Keynesian Model with Imperfect Information and Learning," IDEI Working Papers 273, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  9. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
  10. Bettendorf, Leon J.H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2006. "Population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non-traded goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2389-2424, December.
  11. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Kinnunen, Helvi, 2008. "Government funds and demographic transition – alleviating ageing costs in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 21/2008, Bank of Finland.

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