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Stock market volatility and learning

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Author Info
Klaus Adam () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Albert Marcet () (Institut d’Anàlisi Economica CSIC, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain.)
Juan Pablo Nicolini () (Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Miñones 2177, Capital Federal, (C1428ATG) Argentina.)

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Abstract

Introducing bounded rationality into a standard consumption based asset pricing model with a representative agent and time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though we restrict con- sideration to learning schemes that imply only small deviations from full rationality. The .ndings are robust to the particular learning rule used and the value chosen for the single free parameter introduced by learning, provided agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices. JEL Classification: G12, D84.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 862.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080862

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Related research
Keywords: Asset pricing; learning; near-rational price forecasts.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:272-302 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  7. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 887-907, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eva Carceles Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2006. "Asset pricing with adaptive learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 25, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1990. "On the 'discount' factor in growth economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 43-47, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2006. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2008. "The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 454-476, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Learning, Adaptive Expectations,and Technology Shocks," Emory Economics 0803, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Vivien Lewis & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2009. "Model misspecification, learning and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Research series 200907-01, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Local Learning Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(57), pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability," Working Papers 540, Hanken School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ramón Adalid & Carsten Detken, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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