Assessing the factors behind oil price changes
AbstractThe rapid rise in the price of crude oil between 2004 and the summer of 2006 are the subject of debate. This paper investigates the factors that might have contributed to the oil price increase in addition to demand and supply for crude oil, by expanding a model for crude oil prices to include refinery utilization rates, a non-linear effect of OPEC capacity utilization, and conditions in futures markets as explanatory variables. Together, these factors allow the model to perform well relative to forecasts implied by the far month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and are able to account for much of the rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. JEL Classification: C53, Q41
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0855.
Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
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- M.I. Ahmad, 2012. "Modelling and forecasting Oman crude oil prices using Box-Jenkins techniques," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 24-30.
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