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Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges

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Author Info
Teresa Leal () (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Huelva, Dr. Cantero Cuadrado 6, 21071 Huelva, Spain.)
Javier J. Pérez () (Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Mika Tujula () (Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Jean-Pierre Vidal () (Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner’s perspective and places them in the context of the related literature. JEL Classification: H6, E62, C53.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 843.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070843

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Keywords: Fiscal policies; government budget; forecasting; monitoring.;

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luca Onorante & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Sara Signorini, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 901, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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