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Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?

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  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele
  • Schnatz, Bernd

Abstract

From a conceptual point of view there is little consensus of what should be the “ideal indicator” of international cost and price competitiveness as each of the standard measures typically employed has its own merits and drawbacks. This calls for addressing the question from an empirical angle, searching for the indicator that best explains and helps forecast export developments. This paper constitutes a first attempt to systematically compare the properties of the alternative cost and price competitiveness measures of the euro area. Although they diverge sometimes, we find little evidence that there is one indicator consistently outperforming the other in terms of explaining and forecasting euro area exports. This suggests that the measures based on consumer and producer prices, which offer some advantages in terms of quality and timeliness, are good approximations of euro area price and cost competitiveness. JEL Classification: F17, F31, F41

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0833.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070833

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Keywords: euro area; exports; forecast; price competitiveness; real exchange rate; Trade;

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References

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  1. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  3. Filippo di Mauro & Robert Anderton & Ekkehard Ernst & Laurent Maurin & Sonia Pokutova & Wim Melyn & Axel Jochem & N. M. Pakinezou & Javier Torres & Remy Lecat & Mark Cassidy & Roberto Tedeschi & Erik , 2005. "Competitiveness and the export performance of the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 30, European Central Bank.
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Antje Hildebrandt & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2007. "The Competitiveness Challenge: EU Member States in International Trade," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 67–88.
  2. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
  3. Jules Leichter & Cristina Mocci & Stefania Pozzuoli, . "Measuring External Competitiveness:An Overview," Working Papers 2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  4. O'Brien, Derry & Scally, John, 2012. "Cost Competitiveness and Export Performance of the Irish Economy," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 86-102, July.
  5. Soares Esteves, Paulo & Rua, António, 2013. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Working Paper Series 1594, European Central Bank.
  6. Jone Kalendiene & Giedrius Miliauskas, 2011. "Lithuanian export competitiveness before economic recession," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 40-51, January.
  7. Heike Joebges & Evelyn Herrmann, 2008. "Euro area exports and imports: Do determinants of intra- and extra-EMU trade differ?," IMK Working Paper 08-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  8. Filippo di Mauro & Katrin Forster, 2008. "Globalisation and the competitiveness of the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 97, European Central Bank.
  9. Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Ulrich Haskamp, 2013. "Das ifo Exportklima – ein Frühindikator für die deutsche Exportprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(04), pages 36-43, 03.
  10. Paulo Soares Esteves & António Rua, 2013. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Working Papers w201303, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  11. Kleinert, Joern & Zorell, Nico, 2012. "The export-magnification effect of offshoring," Working Paper Series 1430, European Central Bank.
  12. Gabrisch, Hubert & Staehr, Karsten, 2014. "The euro plus pact: cost competitiveness and external capital flows in the EU countries," Working Paper Series 1650, European Central Bank.

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