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The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US

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  • Kaufmann, Sylvia
  • Valderrama, Maria Teresa

Abstract

We analyze the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy. We estimate a Markov switching VAR for the euro area and the US, including additionally GDP, CPI and a short-term interest rate. We find evidence for two distinct states in both regions. For the euro area, we find a regime which is correlated to the business cycle and which captures periods of very low real credit growth at the end of recessions. However, during this regime credit markets and asset price markets do not impede economic recovery. In the other regime, we do find a procyclical effect of credit and asset price shocks on GDP. Shocks in both variables explain each about 20% of GDP’s forecast error variance after four years. Credit shocks have a positive effect on inflation and explain about 35% of the forecast error variance, which confirms that credit aggregates contain information about the monetary stance. The effect of asset price shocks on inflation is insignificant and their share in explaining the forecast error variance negligible. For the US, regime 1 captures periods of stable GDP growth, and low and stable inflation, combined with accelerating asset prices. We find procyclical effects of credit and asset price shocks on GDP only in regime 2. Shocks in both variables explain about the same share (20%) of GDP forecast error variance, whereby the share explained by asset price shocks is about two and a half times larger than in regime 1. Shocks to credit and asset prices have no significant effect on CPI and explain each about 10% of its forecast error variance in both regimes. This is consistent with the view that monetary policy may achieve price stability without necessarily achieving financial stability. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E44

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0816.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070816

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Keywords: asset prices; Asymmetry; financial system; lending; transmission mechanism;

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References

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  1. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working papers 2005/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  2. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
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  4. Calza Alessandro & Sousa João, 2006. "Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.
  5. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2004. "Modeling Credit Aggregates," Working Papers 90, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2004. "Credit Chains," ESE Discussion Papers 118, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  9. Ongena, S. & Smith, D.C., 2000. "Bank relationships: A review," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-80678, Tilburg University.
  10. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
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  12. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
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Cited by:
  1. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova, 2013. "Evaluating the Links Between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2013/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Dobromil Serwa, 2008. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," Working Papers 30, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  3. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Foreign Investment Income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2014-02, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Robert Tetlow & Kirstin Hubrich, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Christian Heebøll-Christensen, 2011. "Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?," Discussion Papers 11-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  6. Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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