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The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US

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Abstract

We analyze the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy. We estimate a Markov switching VAR for the euro area and the US, including additionally GDP, CPI and a short-term interest rate. We find evidence for two distinct states in both regions. For the euro area, we find a regime which is correlated to the business cycle and which captures periods of very low real credit growth at the end of recessions. However, during this regime credit markets and asset price markets do not impede economic recovery. In the other regime, we do find a procyclical effect of credit and asset price shocks on GDP. Shocks in both variables explain each about 20% of GDP’s forecast error variance after four years. Credit shocks have a positive effect on inflation and explain about 35% of the forecast error variance, which confirms that credit aggregates contain information about the monetary stance. The effect of asset price shocks on inflation is insignificant and their share in explaining the forecast error variance negligible. For the US, regime 1 captures periods of stable GDP growth, and low and stable inflation, combined with accelerating asset prices. We find procyclical effects of credit and asset price shocks on GDP only in regime 2. Shocks in both variables explain about the same share (20%) of GDP forecast error variance, whereby the share explained by asset price shocks is about two and a half times larger than in regime 1. Shocks to credit and asset prices have no significant effect on CPI and explain each about 10% of its forecast error variance in both regimes. This is consistent with the view that monetary policy may achieve price stability without necessarily achieving financial stability. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E44.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 816.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070816

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Keywords: Asymmetry; asset prices; financial system; lending; transmission mechanism.;

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References

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  1. Ongena, S. & Smith, D.C., 2000. "Bank relationships: A review," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-80678, Tilburg University.
  2. Peter Kugler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2006. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working Papers 103, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
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  5. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  6. Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2005. "Output and inflation responses to credit shocks - are there threshold effects in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 481, European Central Bank.
  7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  9. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2004. "Modeling Credit Aggregates," Working Papers 90, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  10. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
  11. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2004. "Credit Chains," ESE Discussion Papers 118, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  12. Boot, Arnoud W. A., 2000. "Relationship Banking: What Do We Know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 7-25, January.
  13. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms," NBER Working Papers 10704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Heebøll-Christensen, 2011. "Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?," Discussion Papers 11-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. Dobromil Serwa, 2008. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," Working Papers 30, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  3. Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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