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Do international portfolio investors follow firms’ foreign investment decisions?

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Author Info
Roberto A. De Santis () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.)
Paul Ehling () (BI, Norwegian School of Management, 0442 Oslo, Norway.)

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Abstract

We analyze the interlinkages between foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) between Germany and the major economies. First, we show that Tobin’s q helps explaining the variation of the growth rate of the stock of FDI. Second, we show that foreign and the home stock market returns explain the variation of the growth rate of the stock of FPI. Most importantly, we find that information about foreign fundamentals is revealed via direct investment. In other words, FDI transactions measured by fitted growth rates of the stock of FDI help explaining current growth rates of the stock of FPI. To our knowledge this observation is the first unambiguous evidence that international portfolio investors follow firms’ expected foreign investment decisions. JEL Classification: F21, F23, G11, G15.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 815.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070815

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Foreign Portfolio Investment; Tobin’s q; Investor Heterogeneity; and Information Spillovers.;

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  2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "General-Equilibrium Approaches to the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregor H & Schneider, Martin, 2006. "Global Private Information in International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert E. Lipsey & Guy V.G. Stevens, 1992. "Interactions between Domestic and Foreign Investment," NBER Working Papers 2714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Williams, Joseph T., 1977. "Capital asset prices with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 219-239, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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