This paper proposes an equilibrium relationship between expected exchange rate changes and differentials in expected returns on risky assets. We show that when expected returns on a risky asset in a certain economy are higher than the returns that are expected from investing in a risky asset in another economy, then the currency corresponding to the economy whose asset offers higher returns is expected to depreciate. Due to its similarity with Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP), we call this equilibrium condition “Uncovered Return Parity” (URP). However, in the URP condition returns’ differentials are not known ex ante, while in the UIP they are. The paper finds empirical support in favour of URP for certain markets over some sample periods. JEL Classification: F30, F31, G12, C32.
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number
812.
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006.
"The Returns to Currency Speculation,"
NBER Working Papers
12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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