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Optimal monetary policy in an estimated DSGE for the euro area

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Author Info
Matthieu Darracq Pariès () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.)
Stéphane Adjemian () (CEPREMAP & GAINS, Université du Maine, Avenue Olivier Messiaen, 72085 Le Mans Cedex 9, France.)
Stéphane Moyen () (Centre d‘Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d‘Évry Val d‘Essonne, 4, bld Francois Mitterand, 91025 Évry Cedex, France.)

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the main features of optimal monetary policy within a micro-founded macroeconometric framework. First, using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a medium scale closed economy DSGE for the euro area. Then, we study the properties of the Ramsey allocation through impulse response, variance decomposition and counterfactual analysis. In particular, we show that, controlling for the zero lower bound constraint, does not seem to limit the stabilization properties of optimal monetary policy. We also present simple monetary policy rules which can "approximate" and implement the Ramsey allocation reasonably well. Such optimal simple operational rules seem to react specifically to nominal wage inflation. Overall, the Ramsey policy together with its simple rule approximations seem to deliver consistent policy messages and may constitute some useful normative benchmarks within medium to large scale estimated DSGE framework. However, this normative analysis based on estimated models reinforces the need to improve the economic micro-foundation and the econometric identification of the structural disturbances. JEL Classification: E4, E5.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 803.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070803

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Related research
Keywords: DSGE models; Monetary policy; Bayesian estimation; Welfare calculations.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2006. "Linear-quadratic approximation of optimal policy problems," Discussion Papers 0607-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 10724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1997. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Paper 9711, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," NBER Working Papers 9419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Günter Coenen, 2003. "Zero lower bound - is it a problem with the euro area?," Working Paper Series 269, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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  10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," NBER Working Papers 11854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frank Smets & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Stéphane Adjemian, 2008. "A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 884, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "DSGE-Modelling - when agents are imperfectly informed," Working Paper Series 897, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nikolaus Siegfried & Emilia Simeonova & Cristina Vespro, 2007. "Choice of currency in bond issuance and the international role of currencies," Working Paper Series 814, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stéphane Adjemian & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Stéphane Moyen, 2008. "Towards a monetary policy evaluation framework," Working Paper Series 942, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2007. "The pricing of risk in European credit and corporate bond markets," Working Paper Series 805, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE model for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 972, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Macroeconomic Modeling when Agents are Imperfectly Informed," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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