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Uncovered interest parity at distant horizons: evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities

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  • Mehl, Arnaud
  • Cappiello, Lorenzo

Abstract

This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) at distant horizons for the US and its main trading partners, including both mature and emerging market economies, also exploring the existence of nonlinearities. At long and medium horizons, it finds support in favour of the standard, linear, specification of UIP for dollar rates vis-à-vis major floating currencies, but not vis-à-vis emerging market currencies. Moreover, the paper finds evidence that, not only yield differentials widen, but that US bond yields do react in anticipation of exchange rate movements, notably when these take place vis-à-vis major floating currencies. Last, the paper detects signs of nonlinearities in UIP at the mediumterm horizon for dollar rates vis-à-vis some of the major floating currencies, albeit surrounded by some uncertainty. JEL Classification: E43, F31, F41

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0801.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070801

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Keywords: distant horizon; emerging economies; Nonlinearities; Uncovered interest parity;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pikoulakis, Emmanuel V. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2012. "Another look at the uncovered interest rate parity: Have we missed the fundamentals?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 476-479.
  2. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2012. "Common Factors Of The Exchange Risk Premium In Emerging European Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages s71-s85, December.
  3. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 130618, National Institute of Economic Research.

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