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The transmission of US cyclical developments to the rest of the world

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Author Info
Stéphane Dées () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.)
Isabel Vansteenkiste () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.)

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Abstract

The US economy is often considered to play a pivotal role in global growth. Such a view has persisted despite the falling contribution of the US economy to global growth (from almost 30% in 1950 to around 20% at present). In this paper, we analyse the veracity of this conjecture and consider the implications of cyclical developments in the US economy on the rest of the world. Overall we find that while US economic developments would indeed affect the rest of the world, developments in most countries and regions remain primarily affected by idiosyncratic shocks as well as by global factors, which do not originate from a single country. JEL Classification: E32, E37, F41.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 798.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070798

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Keywords: Business Cycle Global VAR model Markov-switching model Factor models.

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  10. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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