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Assessing the impact of a change in the composition of public spending: a DSGE approach

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  • Straub, Roland
  • Tchakarov, Ivan

Abstract

Despite intense calls for safeguarding public investment in Europe, public investment expenditure, when measured in relation to GDP, has steadily fallen in the last three decades, evoking fears that economic activity may be correspondingly negatively affected. At the same time, however, public consumption in the EU-12 countries has trended up. In this paper, we provide a macroeconomic assessment of the observed change in the composition of public spending in the euro area in a medium-scale two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. First, we analyze the channels through which, both temporary and permanent public investment shocks generate larger fiscal multipliers than exogenous increases in public consumption. Furthermore, we quantify the negative impact of a change in fiscal stance, characterized by a permanent rise in public consumption and a permanent fall in public investment, keeping thereby the overall level of public spending constant. The key message of the paper is that calls for reversing the observed trend in the composition of public spending are well justifed. JEL Classification: F41, F42

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0795.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070795

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Keywords: DSGE models; euro area; Public consumption; Public investment;

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References

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  1. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 05/159, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Valila, Timo & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Evolution And Determinants Of Public Investment In Europe," Economic and Financial Reports 2005/1, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  7. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2002. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Economics Working Papers 911, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2005.
  8. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  10. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  12. David A. Aschauer, 1989. "Public investment and productivity growth in the Group of Seven," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 17-25.
  13. Florin O. Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2004. "Fiscal Policy, Business Cycles and Labor-Market Fluctuations," MNB Working Papers 2004/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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  16. Evi Pappa, 2005. "New Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Labor Markets," Working Papers 293, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  17. Alessandro Turrini, 2004. "Public investment and the EU fiscal framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 202, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.
  2. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
  3. Francisco de Castro & Laura Fernández-Caballero, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1121, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Juraj Stancik & Timo Valila, 2009. "Changes in the Fiscal Stance and the Composition of Public Spending," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp394, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  5. Guillem López Casasnovas, 2010. "La calidad del gasto público y su influencia en el desarrollo económico: una validación empírica para los países de la OCDE 1970-2005," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 193(2), pages 9-48, June.
  6. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Forni, Lorenzo & Gerali, Andrea & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2010. "The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in euro area countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1791-1812, September.
  8. repec:dgr:uvatin:2010021 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Francisco de Castro Fernández & José Manuel González Mínguez, 2008. "The composition of public finances and long-term growth: a macroeconomic approach," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0809, Banco de Espa�a.

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