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Euro area market reactions to the monetary developments press release

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  • Coffinet, Jerome
  • Gouteron, Sylvain

Abstract

Using intra-day data, we assess the impact of the press release on euro area monetary data on the different segments of the euro area yield curve. For this purpose, we estimate a relation between the “news” or “surprise” in the released data for annual M3 growth and the move in the interest rates for a time-window surrounding the press release. We find that the publication of monetary data has a statistically significant impact on interest rates with maturities ranging from 1 to 10 years, with the largest effect on the 1-2 year segment. Turning to the short end of the yield curve, since mid-2001 rates with maturities up to 6 months do not react much to the monetary developments press release. Our results suggest that market participants may look through short-term movements of annual M3 growth and focus instead on the trend rate of monetary expansion over the medium term when gauging the policy relevant signals. JEL Classification: E43, E44, E52, E58

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0792.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070792

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Keywords: high-frequency data; macroeconomic announcements; money growth;

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Cited by:
  1. Jér�me Coffinet & Sylvain Gouteron, 2010. "Euro-Area Yield Curve Reaction to Monetary News," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 208-224, 05.
  2. Coffinet, J. & Frappa, S., 2008. "Macroeconomic Surprises and the Inflation Compensation Curve in the Euro Area," Working papers 220, Banque de France.
  3. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.
  4. Martin Cihák & Katerina Smídková & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," IMF Working Papers 08/252, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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