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Evaluating the real effect of bank branching deregulation - comparing contiguous counties across U.S. state borders

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Author Info
Rocco R. Huang () (University of Amsterdam, and European Central Bank. Correspondence address: European Central Bank, DG-R/FIRD, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new methodology to evaluate the economic effect of state-specific policy changes, using bank-branching deregulations in the U.S. as an example. The new method compares economic performance of contiguous counties on opposite sides of state borders, where on one side restrictions on statewide branching were removed relatively earlier, to create a natural “regression discontinuity” setup. The study uses a total of 285 pairs of contiguous counties along 38 segments of such regulation change borders to estimate treatment effects for 23 separate deregulation events. To distinguish real treatment effects from those created by data-snooping and spatial correlations, fictitious placebo deregulations are randomized (permutated) on another 32 segments of non-event borders to establish empirically a statistical table of critical values for the estimator. The method determines that statistically significant growth accelerations can be established at a >90% confidence level in five out of the 23 deregulation events examined. “Hinterland counties” within the still-regulated states, but farther away from the state borders, are used as a second control group to consider and reject the possibility that cross-border spillover of deregulation effects may invalidate the empirical design. JEL Classification: G21, G28, O43.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 788.

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Length: 80 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070788

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Related research
Keywords: Banking deregulation; Economic growth; Regression discontinuity.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "What Drives Deregulation? Economics And Politics Of The Relaxation Of Bank Branching Restrictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1437-1467, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Berger, Allen N. & Demsetz, Rebecca S. & Strahan, Philip E., 1999. "The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes, consequences, and implications for the future," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 135-194, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Wall, Howard J., 2004. "Entrepreneurship and the deregulation of banking," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 333-339, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Myron L. Kwast & Martha Starr-McCluer & John D. Wolken, 1997. "Market definition and the analysis of antitrust in banking," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Campello, Murillo, 2007. "Firm balance sheets and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1515-1528, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Freeman, Donald G., 2002. "Did state bank branching deregulation produce large growth effects?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 383-389, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mark J. Garmaise & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2006. "Bank Mergers and Crime: The Real and Social Effects of Credit Market Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 495-538, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jayaratne, Jith & Strahan, Philip E, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 639-70, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Sandra E. Black & Philip E. Strahan, 2002. "Entrepreneurship and Bank Credit Availability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2807-2833, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Peter L. Rousseau & Paul Wachtel, 2005. "Economic Growth and Financial Depth: Is the Relationship Extinct Already?," Working Papers 05-15, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Thomas A. Garrett & Gary A. Wagner & David C. Wheelock, 2005. "A spatial analysis of state banking regulation," Working Papers 2003-044, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Hans Degryse, 2004. "The Impact of Technology and Regulation on the Geographical Scope of Banking," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 571-590, Winter.
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  15. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Mark J. Garmaise, 2004. "Confronting Information Asymmetries: Evidence from Real Estate Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 405-437. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kane, Edward J, 1981. "Accelerating Inflation, Technological Innovation, and the Decreasing Effectiveness of Banking Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 355-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jith Jayaratne & Philip E. Strahan, 1997. "The benefits of branching deregulation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 13-29. [Downloadable!]
  19. Kane, Edward J, 1996. "De Jure Interstate Banking: Why Only Now?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 141-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Edward J. Kane, 1984. "Technological and Regulatory Forces in the Developing Fusion of Financial-Services Competition," NBER Working Papers 1320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Sandra E. Black, 1999. "Do Better Schools Matter? Parental Valuation Of Elementary Education," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 577-599, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Kane, Edward J, 1984. " Technological and Regulatory Forces in the Developing Fusion of Financial-Services Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 759-72, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-93, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "The real effects of U.S. banking deregulation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 111-128. [Downloadable!]
  25. Prager, Robin A & Hannan, Timothy H, 1998. "Do Substantial Horizontal Mergers Generate Significant Price Effects? Evidence from the Banking Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 433-52, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ross Levine & Alexey Levkov & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Racial Discrimination and Competition," NBER Working Papers 14273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Masami Imai, 2008. "Crowding-Out Effects of a Government-Owned Depository Institution: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2008-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2007. "The pricing of risk in European credit and corporate bond markets," Working Paper Series 805, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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