The ‘Great Moderation’ in the United Kingdom
AbstractWe use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a dominant role played by shocks in fostering the more stable macroeconomic environment of the last two decades. Results from counterfactual simulations, in particular, show that (1) the Great Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non-policy shocks, and to a lesser extent–especially in 1973 and 1979–to supply shocks; (2) imposing the 1970s’ monetary rule over the entire sample period would have made almost no difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes; and (3)mechanically ‘bringing the Monetary Policy Committee vback in time’ would only have had a limited impact on the Great Inflation episode, at the cost of lower output growth. These results are quite striking in the light of the more traditional, narrative approach, which suggests that the monetary policy regime is an important factor in explaining the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. We discuss one interpretation which could explain both sets of results, based on the ‘indeterminacy hypothesis’ advocated, for the United States, by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (2000) and Lubik and Schorfheide (2004). JEL Classification: E32, E47, E52, E58
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0769.
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-07-07 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2007-07-07 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2007-07-07 (Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Economists as priests?
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2010-11-15 14:31:22
- Inflation targeting: some questions
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-05-06 13:19:11
- "Black Wednesday": two paradoxes
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2012-09-17 13:37:11
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.