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Explaining monetary policy in press conferences

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Author Info
Michael Ehrmann () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

The question how best to communicate monetary policy decisions remains a highly topical issue among central banks. Focusing on the experience of the European Central Bank, this paper studies how explanations of monetary policy decisions at press conferences are perceived by financial markets. The empirical findings show that ECB press conferences provide substantial additional information to financial markets beyond that contained in the monetary policy decisions, and that the information content is closely linked to the characteristics of the decisions. Press conferences indeed have on average had larger effects on financial markets than even the corresponding policy decisions, and with lower effects on volatility. Moreover, the Q&A part of the press conference fulfils a clarification role about the economic outlook, in particular during periods of large macroeconomic uncertainty. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G14.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 767.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070767

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Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy; financial markets; real-time analysis; press conference; communication; European Central Bank.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2006. "The impact of ECB monetary policy decisions and communication on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 657, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Vitor Gaspar & Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Paper Series 069, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-36. [Downloadable!]
  9. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 155-185, June. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees - different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
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  13. Reint Gropp & Arjan Kadareja, 2006. "Stale information, shocks and volatility," Working Paper Series 686, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Magnus Andersson, 2007. "Using intraday data to gauge financial market responses to Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions," Working Paper Series 726, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Rachel Reeves & Michael Sawicki, 2005. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," Discussion Papers 15, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  17. Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Federal Reserve transparency and financial market forecasts of short-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Jakob Haan & Fabian Amtenbrink & Sandra Waller, 2004. "The Transparency and Credibility of the European Central Bank," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 775-794, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Andersson, Malin & Dillen, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "Monetary policy signaling and movements in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1815-1855, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Hansen & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. Helge Berger & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Monetary policy in the media," Working Paper Series 679, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  24. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Truman F. Bewley, 2007. "Insights gained from conversations with labor market decision makers," Working Paper Series 776, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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