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The cyclicality of consumption, wages and employment of the public sector in the euro area

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Author Info
Ana Lamo () (Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Javier J. Pérez () (Directorate General Economic, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Ludger Schuknecht () (Directorate General Economic, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This study examines the business cycle behaviour of public consumption and its main components; the public wage bill (including compensation per employee and public employment)and intermediate consumption in the euro area aggregate, euro area countries and a group of selected non-euro area OECD countries (Denmark, Sweden, the UK, Japan and the US). It looks across a large number of variables and methods, using annual data from 1960 to 2005. It finds robust evidence supporting that public consumption, wages and employment co-move with the business cycle in a pro-cyclical manner with 1-2 year lags, notably for the euro area aggregate and euro area countries. The findings reflect mainly the correlation between cyclical developments (automatic stabilizers), but also point to the important role of pro-cyclical discretionary fiscal policies. JEL Classification: E62, E63, H50.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 757.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070757

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Related research
Keywords: Public consumption; public wages; public employment; stylized facts; filtering; thick modelling.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ravn, Morten O. & Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Den Haan, Wouter & Sumner, Steven, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 2801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven Sumner, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," NBER Working Papers 8195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  9. Adriana Arreaza & Bent E. Sgrensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 59-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lane, Philip R. & Tornell, Aaron, 1998. "Voracity and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Wouter den Haan & STEVEN SUMNER, 2001. "The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  14. Arreaza, A. & Sorensen, B.E. & Yosha, O., 1997. "Consumption Smoothing Through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries," Papers 37-97, Tel Aviv.
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  15. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jacques Melitz, 2005. "Non-Discretionary and Automatic Fiscal Policy in the EU and the OECD," Working Papers 2005-10, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  17. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Andre, Francisco J. & Perez, Javier J. & Martin, Ricardo, 2002. "Computing white stylized facts on comovement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 65-71, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Strawczynski, Michel & Zeira, Joseph, 2009. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: Permanent and Transitory Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Truman F. Bewley, 2007. "Insights gained from conversations with labor market decision makers," Working Paper Series 776, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luigi Landolfo, 2007. "Modeling the impact of external factors on the euro area’s HICP and real economy - a focus on pass-through and the trade balance," Working Paper Series 789, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes, 2008. "Interactions between Private and Public Sector Wages," Working Papers 2008/55, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Philipp Engler & Michael Fidora & Christian Thimann, 2007. "External imbalances and the US current account - how supply-side changes affect an exchange rate adjustment," Working Paper Series 761, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Giovanni Lombardo & David Vestin, 2007. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing assumptions," Working Paper Series 770, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Andrew E. Clark & Carine Milcent, 2008. "Keynesian hospitals? Public employment and political pressure," PSE Working Papers 2008-18, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  8. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2007. "The pricing of risk in European credit and corporate bond markets," Working Paper Series 805, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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