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Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model

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Abstract

We estimate the approximate nonlinear solution of a small DSGE model on euro area data, using the conditional particle filter to compute the model likelihood. Our results are consistent with previous findings, based on simulated data, suggesting that this approach delivers sharper inference compared to the estimation of the linearised model. We also show that the nonlinear model can account for richer economic dynamics - the impulse responses to structural shocks vary depending on initial conditions selected within our estimation sample. JEL Classification: C11, C15, E31, E32, E52.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 754.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070754

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Keywords: DSGE models; inflation persistence; second order approximations; sequential Monte Carlo; Bayesian estimation.;

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