Excess money growth and inflation dynamics
AbstractThe paper analyses the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 industrialised economies. We find that, over a 3-year horizon, the positive link between monetary aggregates and prices holds in approximately fifty percent of the cases. An econometric investigation suggests that a contemporaneous increase in the gap measures of the real stock price and real housing price and strong dynamics of loans to the private sector significantly increase the probability of turning an episode of excessive money growth into an inflationary outburst. JEL Classification: E31, E40.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 749.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-06-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-06-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-06-02 (Monetary Economics)
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