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Commodity prices, money and inflation

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Author Info
Frank Browne (Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Department, Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland, P.O. Box 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2, Ireland.)
David Cronin () (Corresponding author: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Department, Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland, P.O. Box 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2, Ireland.)
Abstract

The influence of commodity prices on consumer prices is usually seen as originating in commodity markets. We argue, however, that long run and short run relationships should exist between commodity prices, consumer prices and money and that the influence of commodity prices on consumer prices occurs through a money-driven overshooting of commodity prices being corrected over time. Using a cointegrating VAR framework and US data, our empirical findings are supportive of these relationships, with both commodity and consumer prices proportional to the money supply in the long run, commodity prices initially overshooting their new equilibrium values in response to a money supply shock, and the deviation of commodity prices from their equilibrium values having explanatory power for subsequent consumer price inflation. JEL Classification: E31, E51, E52.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 738.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070738

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Related research
Keywords: Overshooting; VECM; impulse response analysis.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pecchenino, R. A., 1992. "Commodity prices and the CPI: Cointegration, information, and signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 493-500, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1988:i:nov:p:3-11:n:v.74no.6 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Fred Furlong & Robert Ingenito, 1996. "Commodity prices and inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-47. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Surrey, M J C, 1989. "Money, Commodity Prices and Inflation: Some Simple Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 219-38, August.
  8. S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 21-38. [Downloadable!]
  9. Cody, Brian J & Mills, Leonard O, 1991. "The Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 358-65, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2009. "Inflation-hedging portfolios in Different Regimes," Working Papers CEB 09-047.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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