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Structural balances and revenue windfalls: the role of asset prices revisited

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  • Morris, Richard
  • Schuknecht, Ludger

Abstract

In this paper we revisit one of the “missing links” between budget balances and the economic cycle, namely the impact of asset prices on fiscal revenues. We estimate revenue elasticities with respect to equity and real estate price indices for 16 OECD countries, as well as for a synthetic euro area aggregate. For a sub-sample of euro area countries, we use these elasticities to investigate the impact of asset prices on budget balances and the assessment of the fiscal stance by adjusting existing estimates of cyclically adjusted balances for the asset price “cycle”. The results support the view that asset price movements are a major factor behind unexplained changes in the cyclically adjusted balance, which, if not accounted for, can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding underlying fiscal developments. JEL Classification: H2, H6, E6, G1

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0737.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070737

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Keywords: asset prices; deficits; Fiscal policies; tax revenues;

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Cited by:
  1. Andersen, Torben M., 2013. "Fiscal policy targeting under imperfect information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-130.
  2. Anthony Annett, 2007. "Toward a Robust Fiscal Framework for Iceland," IMF Working Papers 07/235, International Monetary Fund.
  3. C. Martinez-Mongay & L.A. Maza Lasierra & J. Yaniz Igal, 2007. "Asset Booms and Tax Receipts: The case of Spain, 1995-2006," European Economy - Economic Papers 293, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
  5. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "How Does Fiscal Policy React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," GEMF Working Papers 2011-18, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  6. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
  7. Morris, Richard & de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Jonk, Steven & Kremer, Jana & Linehan, Suzanne & Marino, Maria Rosaria & Schalck, Christophe & Tkacevs, Olegs, 2009. "Explaining government revenue windfalls and shortfalls: an analysis for selected EU countries," Working Paper Series 1114, European Central Bank.
  8. Dumitru, Ionut & Stanca, Razvan, 2010. "Fiscal discipline and economic growth – the case of Romania," MPRA Paper 27300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
  10. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Working Papers 116, Bank of Greece.

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