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What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?

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  • Sánchez, Marcelo
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international trade variables are dominated by domestic shocks. External shocks on average explain a fraction of no more than 10% of the variation in the endogenous variables considered. Moreover, real imports fail to display a cross-regional pattern, while technology shocks appear to be the disturbances playing a somewhat more important role in explaining consumer prices developments. Consumer prices and – depending on the disturbance considered – real imports are the variables showing larger impulse responses to unit shocks. JEL Classification: C32, E32, F41

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0730.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070730

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    Keywords: business cycles; emerging markets; international trade; structural shocks;

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    Cited by:
    1. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Loan Supply Shocks during the Financial Crisis: Evidence for the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3395, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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