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Inflation Forecasts, monetary policy and unemployment dynamics: evidence from the US and the euro area

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  • Altavilla, Carlo
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo

Abstract

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size and the timing of these effects, as well as to quantify the uncertainty relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue and strengthen the case for a policy strategy that takes into account several sources of information. We find that combining inflation forecasts from many models not only yields more accurate forecasts than those of any specific model, but also reduces the uncertainty associated with the real effects of policy decisions. These results are in line with the model-combination approach that central banks already follow when conceiving their strategy. JEL Classification: C53, E24, E37

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0725.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070725

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Keywords: E24; E37; Inflation forecasts; JEL Classification: C53; Model uncertainty; Unemployment;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Vermeulen, Philip & Gautier, Erwan & Stahl, Harald & Dossche, Maarten & Sabbatini, Roberto & Dias, Daniel & Hernando, Ignacio, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 0846, European Central Bank.
  3. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2013. "Low-inflation-targeting monetary policy and differential unemployment rate: Is monetary policy to be blamed for the financial crisis? — Evidence from major OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 546-564.
  4. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2575, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. María Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Dabús., 2008. "The Determinants of Relative Price Variability: Further Evidence from Argentina," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 235-255.
  6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
  8. Pang, Iris Ai Jao, 2010. "Forecasting Hong Kong economy using factor augmented vector autoregression," MPRA Paper 32495, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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