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Are survey-based inflation expectations in the euro area informative

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Author Info
Ricardo Mestre () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper contributes to the old theme of testing for rationality of inflation expectations in surveys, using two very different surveys in parallel. Focusing on the euro area and using two well-known surveys that include questions on inflation expectations, the Consensus Forecast survey and the European Commission Household survey, a battery of tests is applied to inflation forecasts. Tests are based on a preliminary discussion of the meaning of Rational Expectations in the macroeconomic literature, and how this maps into specific econometric tests. Tests used are both standard ones already reported in the literature and less standard ones of potential interest within the framework discussed. Tests focus on in-sample properties of the forecasts, both in static and dynamic settings, and in out-of sample tests to explore the performance of the forecasts in a simulated out-of-sample setting. As a general conclusion, both surveys are found to contain potentially useful information. Although the Consensus Forecasts survey is the best one in terms of quality of the forecasts, rationality in the European Commission Household survey, once measurement issues are taken into account, cannot be ruled out. JEL Classification:C40; C42; C50; C53; E37.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 721.

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Length: 67 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070721

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Related research
Keywords: Rational expectations tests of rationality inflation forecasting.

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  1. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Berk, Jan Marc, 1999. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: A Survey Data Approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael Ehrmann, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 588, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 6228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. R. W. Hafer & David H. Resler, 1980. "The "rationality" of survey-based inflation forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-11. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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