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Adjusting to the euro

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  • Fagan, Gabriel
  • Gaspar, Vítor

Abstract

In this paper we argue that, for a group of converging economies of the European Union, participation in the euro area has been associated with easier access to financing by domestic economic agents. Easier access to financing was a significant impulse leading to a sharp increase in households' expenditures and a corresponding fall in the savings ratio. Increased expenditure was associated with current account deficits, a sharp fall in the net foreign asset position and an increase in the households' indebtedness. At the same time there was a sizeable increase in the real exchange rate. In this paper, we show that it is possible to obtain all these qualitative features of adjustment using a simple analytical model of intertemporal equilibrium. Specifically, we consider a simple endowment economy with traded and non-traded goods populated by Blanchard-Yaari households. We also argue that the consideration of external habit formation improves the model's ability to mimic short to medium term adjustment dynamics while, at the same time, improving the plausibility of steady state effects. JEL Classification: F36, E21, F32

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0716.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070716

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Keywords: euro area; interest rate convergence; overlapping generations model;

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References

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  1. Velculescu Delia, 2004. "Intergenerational Habits, Fiscal Policy, and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, September.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lane, Philip R., 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
  7. Robert-Paul Berben & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Javier Vallés, 2005. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0502, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Extracting Information from Asset Prices: The Methodology of EMU Calculators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Vega, Juan Luis, 2006. "What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries? An overview," Working Paper Series 0599, European Central Bank.
  10. A. Abel, 2010. "Asset prices under habit formation and catching up with the Jones," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1395, David K. Levine.
  11. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  13. Mansoorian, Arman, 1993. "Habit persistence and the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in an infinite horizon model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 153-166, February.
  14. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
  15. David S. Bates, 1999. "Financial Markets' Assessment of EMU," NBER Working Papers 6874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
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  19. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2010. "External imbalances in a monetary union. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?," Working Papers 10-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  2. C. Martinez-Mongay & L.A. Maza Lasierra & J. Yaniz Igal, 2007. "Asset Booms and Tax Receipts: The case of Spain, 1995-2006," European Economy - Economic Papers 293, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-127, May.
  4. Pedro Bação & António Portugal Duarte, 2011. "Accession to the European Union, Interest Rates and Indebtedness: Greece and Portugal," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Katharina Steiner, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," NBER Working Papers 14438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cristian Stefan Ovidiu, 2011. "The Risks Of A Too Quick Euro Adoption By The Eu Member States. The Case Of Portugal," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 25-32, December.
  7. Alexandre, Fernando & Bação, Pedro & Cerejeira, João & Portela, Miguel, 2010. "Manufacturing Employment and Exchange Rates in the Portuguese Economy: The Role of Openness, Technology and Labour Market Rigidity," IZA Discussion Papers 5251, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Alexandre Janiak, 2008. "Mobility in Europe - Why it is low, the bottlenecks, and the policy solutions," European Economy - Economic Papers 340, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "EMU and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp272, IIIS.
  10. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
  11. Herrmann, Sabine, 2009. "Do we really know that flexible exchange rates facilitate current account adjustment? Some new empirical evidence for CEE countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,22, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Lane, Philip R., 2011. "The Irish Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8287, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Pradeep Mitra & Marcelo Selowsky & Juan Zalduendo, 2010. "Turmoil at Twenty : Recession, Recovery, and Reform in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2682, August.
  14. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "The Costs to Consumers of a Depreciated Conversion Rate to the Euro," MPRA Paper 5723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "EMU and Financial Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp248, IIIS.

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