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Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment

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Author Info
Paul Levine () (Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, GU2 7XH, United Kingdom.)
Peter McAdam () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Joseph Pearlman () (London Metropolitan University, 31 Jewry Street, London, EC3N 2EY, United Kingdom.)

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Abstract

The objectives of this paper are - first, to quantify the stabilization welfare gains from commitment; second, to examine how commitment to an optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium and third, to find a simple interest rate rule that closely approximates the optimal commitment one. We utilize an influential empirical micro-founded DSGE model, the euro area model of Smets and Wouters (2003), and a quadratic approximation of the representative household’s utility as the welfare criterion. Importantly, we impose the effect of a nominal interest rate zero lower bound. In contrast with previous studies, we find significant stabilization gains from commitment - our central estimate is a 0.4 ? 0.5% equivalent permanent increase in consumption, but in a variant with a higher degree of price stickiness, gains of over 2% are found. We also find that a simple optimized commitment rule with the nominal interest rate responding to current inflation and the real wage closely mimics the optimal rule. JEL Classification: E52, E37, E58.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 709.

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Length: 68 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070709

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary rules commitment discretion welfare gains.

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Nicoletta Batini & Alejandro Justiniano & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Robust Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules to Shield against Indeterminacy," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0804, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation, Efficiency and Target-Implementability," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 441, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 3895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barro, Robert J., 1986. "Reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 3-20, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. ALISTAIR DIEPPE & KEITH KÜSTER & PETER McADAM, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(3), pages 507-537, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dennis, Richard & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2006. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 847-872, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 43-56. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
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  14. Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Roland Straub, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area - a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 747, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Choudhary, M. Ali & Levine, Paul, 2006. "Idle worship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 77-83, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Julian von Landesberger, 2007. "Sectoral money demand models for the euro area based on a common set of determinants," Working Paper Series 741, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard Morris & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Structural balances and revenue windfalls - the role of asset prices revisited," Working Paper Series 737, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules - what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 745, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Working Paper Series 727, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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