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What drives investors’ behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis

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Author Info
Olli Castrén () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Chiara Osbat () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Matthias Sydow () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

We apply the Campbell-Shiller return decomposition to exchange rate returns and fundamentals in a stationary panel vector autoregression framework. The return decomposition is then used to analyse how different investor segments react to news as captured by the different return components. The results suggest that intrinsic value news are dominating for equity investors and speculative money market investors while investors in currency option markets react strongly to expected return news. The equity and speculative money market investors seem able to distinguish between transitory and permanent FX movements while options investors mainly focus on transitory movements. We also find evidence that offsetting impact on the various return components can blur the effect of macroeconomic data releases on aggregate FX excess returns. JEL Classification: C23, F31, F32, G15.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 706.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060706

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Related research
Keywords: FX return prediction; investor flows; news surprises; panel estimation; stationary VAR.;

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  2. Randolph B. Cohen & Paul A. Gompers & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 8793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "On PPP, Unit Roots and Panels," Economics Series 176, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 248, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, . "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-Economic Data," Working Papers 170, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lyhagen, Johan, 2000. "Why not use standard panel unit root test for testing PPP," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 413, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Rime, Dagfinn, 2001. "U.S. Exchange Rates and Currency Flows," SIFR Research Report Series 4, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

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  2. Rasmus Rüffer & Marcelo Sánchez & Jian-Guang Shen, 2007. "Emerging Asia’s growth and integration - how autonomous are business cycles?," Working Paper Series 715, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Barbara Roffia, 2007. "The Eurosystem, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan - similarities and differences," Working Paper Series 742, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Paul Hiebert & Matthias Sydow, 2009. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 1019, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Working Paper Series 727, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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