This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Geography or skills - What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Helge Berger () (Free University Berlin, Department of Economics, Boltzmannstrasse 20, 12161 Berlin, Germany.)
Michael Ehrmann () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts – such as their educational and employment backgrounds – and to geography. In particular, there is evidence that forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. Moreover, systematic forecaster heterogeneity is economically important as it leads to greater financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G14.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp695.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 695.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060695

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Official Publications).

Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; forecast; Federal Reserve; FOMC; geography; skills; heterogeneity; survey data; communication; United States.;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "How should central banks communicate?," Working Paper Series 557, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene & Oh, Yonghyup, 2001. "Information and capital flows: The determinants of transactions in financial assets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 783-796, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gordon L. Clark, 2002. "London in the European financial services industry: locational advantage and product complementarities," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 433-453, October.
  5. Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gary A. S. Cook & Naresh R. Pandit & Jonathan V. Beaverstock & Peter J. Taylor & Kathy Pain, 2004. "The Clustering of Financial Services in London," ERSA conference papers ersa04p49, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2004-2), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central-bank communication and policy effectiveness," Discussion Papers 0506-07, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Lei Feng & Mark S. Seasholes, 2004. "Correlated Trading and Location," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2117-2144, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Froot, Kenneth A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-217, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees - different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
  15. Tomas Dvorak, . "Do Domestic Investors Have an Information Advantage? Evidence from Indonesia," Center for Development Economics 168, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
  16. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gehrig, Thomas, 1993. " An Information Based Explanation of the Domestic Bias in International Equity Investment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(1), pages 97-109.
  18. Ahearne, Alan G. & Griever, William L. & Warnock, Francis E., 2004. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 313-336, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Transparency, disclosure and the Federal Reserve," Working Paper Series 457, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
  21. Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa & Vives, Xavier, 2005. "Why and Where do Headquarters Move?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Roger H. Gordon & A. Lans Bovenberg, 1994. "Why is Capital so Immobile Internationally?: Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 4796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. " Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can include your works in the database easily by uploading them on the Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) if you do not have access to an institutional RePEc archive.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.