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Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark

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  • Bussière, Matthieu
  • Schnatz, Bernd

Abstract

The rapid transition of China from a closed agricultural society to an industrial powerhouse has been associated with a rapid increase in the share of China in world trade. As the world is taking the full measure of this phenomenon, tensions have been arising ranging from holding China partly responsible for global imbalances to complaints about the “excessive” competitiveness of Chinese products. Without a quantifiable benchmark, however, such claims are difficult to judge. This paper therefore provides an assessment of China’s “natural” place in the world economy based on a new set of trade integration indicators. These indicators are used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates many more factors than traditional openness ratios. Results show that the model tracks international trade well and confirm that China is already well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets and most euro area countries. JEL Classification: C23, F15, F14

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0693.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060693

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Keywords: China; Gravity Model; panel data; Trade;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Balasan, Andrei-Cristian, 2012. "Literature review concerning the relationship between globalization and regionalization in the world economy," MPRA Paper 39746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.
  3. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Tham, Siew Yean, 2013. "Trade linkages of inward and outward FDI: Evidence from Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 224-230.
  4. Lars Boerner & Oliver Volckart, 2010. "The utility of a common coinage: currency unions and the integration of money markets in late medieval Central Europe," Economic History Working Papers 29409, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  5. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Tham, Siew Yean, 2012. "Does Outward FDI Matter in International Trade? Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 39715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
  8. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson & Jessica Y. Xu, 2010. "The International Effects of China's Growth, Trade and Ecucation Booms," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  9. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Geldi, Hatice Kerra, 2012. "Trade effects of regional integration: A panel cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1566-1570.
  11. Ivan Roberts & Anthony Rush, 2010. "Sources of Chinese Demand for Resource Commodities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  12. A Salim, Ruhu & Mahfuz Kabir, Mohammad, 2011. "Does More Trade Potential Remain in Arab States of the Gulf ?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 217-243.
  13. Rudiger Ahrend & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2012. "Do investors disproportionately shed assets of distant countries during global financial crises?: The role of increased uncertainty," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-20.
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