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Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?

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Author Info
Bernd Schnatz () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

The paper tests for nonlinearities in the adjustment of the euro exchange rate towards purchasing power parity (PPP). It presents new survey based evidence consistent with non-linear patterns in euro exchange rate dynamics. Moreover, based on an exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR-) model, it finds strong evidence that the speed of mean reversion in euro exchange rates increases non-linearly with the magnitude of the PPP deviation. Accordingly, while the euro real exchange rate can be well approximated by a random walk if PPP deviations are small, in periods of significant deviations, gravitational forces are set to take root and bring the exchange rate back towards its long-term trend. Consistent with higher euro-dollar volatility, deviations from the PPP equilibrium for this pair need to be stronger in order to reach the same adjustment intensity as for other currencies. JEL Classification: F31.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 682.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060682

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Related research
Keywords: Purchasing power parity; real exchange rate; non-linearities; STAR models.;

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  1. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ekkehard Ernst & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler & Lina Bukeviciute, 2006. "Quantifying the impact of structural reforms," Working Paper Series 666, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fischer, Christoph & Porath, Daniel, 2006. "A reappraisal of the evidence on PPP: a systematic investigation into MA roots in panel unit root tests and their implications," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Reint Gropp & Marco Lo Duca & Jukka Vesala, 2006. "Cross-border bank contagion in Europe," Working Paper Series 662, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barbara Annicchiarico & Nicola Giammarioli & Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime," Working Paper Series 661, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," International Finance 0111003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Olli Castrén & Trevor Fitzpatrick & Matthias Sydow, 2006. "What drives EU banks’ stock returns? Bank-level evidence using the dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 677, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Elena Angelini & Antonello D‘Agostino & Peter McAdam, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 660, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006. "The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 16, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2006. "On the speed of adjustment in ESTAR models when allowance is made for bias in estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 272-277, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2006. "Comparing alternative predictors based on large-panel factor models," Working Paper Series 680, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Christoph Fischer, 2006. "PPP: a disaggregated view," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 93-108, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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