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Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US

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Author Info
Günter W. Beck () (Goethe University Frankfurt and CFS. Contact: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Goethe University Frankfurt, Mertonstrasse 17, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany.)
Kirstin Hubrich () (Corresponding author: Research Department, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Massimiliano Marcellino () (IEP-Bocconi University, IGIER and CEPR. Contact: Bocconi University, IGIER, Via Salasco, 5, Milano 20136, Italy.)

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Abstract

We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as well as an idiosyncratic regional component. Our findings indicate a substantial common area wide component, that can be related to the common monetary policy in the euro area and to external developments, in particular exchange rate movements and changes in oil prices. The effects of the area wide factors differ across regions, however. We relate these differences to structural economic characteristics of the various regions. We also find a substantial national component. Our findings do not differ substantially before and after the formal introduction of the euro in 1999, suggesting that convergence has largely taken place before the mid 90s. Analysing US regional inflation developments yields similar results regarding the relevance of common US factors. Finally, we find that disaggregate regional inflation information, as summarised by the area wide factors, is important in explaining aggregate euro area and US inflation rates, even after conditioning on macroeconomic variables. Therefore, monitoring regional inflation rates within euro area countries can enhance the monetary policy maker’s understanding of aggregate area wide inflation dynamics. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, C33.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 681.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060681

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Related research
Keywords: Regional inflation dynamics; euro area and US; common factor models.;

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  11. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "A Comparison of Estimation Methods for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Working Papers 489, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-Run Divergence?: Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 674, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Carla Massidda & Paolo Mattana, 2008. "Regional productivity and relative prices dynamics: the case of Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 945-966, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey," MPRA Paper 16770, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rasmus Rüffer & Marcelo Sánchez & Jian-Guang Shen, 2007. "Emerging Asia’s growth and integration - how autonomous are business cycles?," Working Paper Series 715, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Uwe Blien & Hermann Gartner & Heiko Stüber & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Regional price levels and the agglomeration wage differential in western Germany," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 71-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Abelardo Salazar Neaves & Oliver Hossfeld & Jan Hagen & Kai Carstensen, 2008. "Money Demand Stability and Inflation: Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 667, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrea Vaona & Guido Ascari, 2007. "Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Italy," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 0807, Biblioteca universitaria di Lugano (University Library of Lugano). [Downloadable!]
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