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The geography of international portfolio flows, international CAPM and the role of monetary policy frameworks

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Author Info
Roberto A. De Santis () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

Using bilateral data on international equity and bond flows, we find that the prediction of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model is partially met and that global equity markets might be more integrated than global bond markets. Moreover, over the turbulent 1998-2001 period characterised by an equity bubble and the subsequent burst, we find evidence that investors preferred portfolio assets of countries where the central bank gave relative importance to money. As for EMU, once controlling for diversification benefits and the elimination of the exchange rate risk, we show that cross-border portfolio flows among euro area countries have increased due to the catalyst effect of EMU. Country's shares in the world market portfolio, home bias, initial degree of misallocation across countries, past returns, diversification benefits and EMU can explain 35-40% of the total variation in equity and bond asset flows. JEL Classification: C13, C21, F37, G11.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 678.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060678

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Related research
Keywords: Capital flows; Home bias; Risk diversification; EMU; Monetary policy.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-80.
  4. Shujing Li & Isabel K. Yan & Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "The Determinants of International Portfolio Holdings and Home Bias," IMF Working Papers 04/34, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto A. De Santis & Melanie Lührmann, 2006. "On the determinants of external imbalances and net international portfolio flows - a global perspective," Working Paper Series 651, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2004. "International Investment Patterns," IMF Working Papers 04/134, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-80, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. R. Gaston Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2987-3020, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2005. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael J. Brennan. and H. Henry Cao., 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-271, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  15. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2006. "The Geography of Trade in Goods and Asset Holdings," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  19. Philip R. Lane, 2005. "Global bond portfolios and EMU," Working Paper Series 553, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Carsten Detken & Frank Smets, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Working Paper Series 227, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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