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The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model

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Author Info
Elena Angelini () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Antonello D‘Agostino () (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland, P.O. Box 559/Dame Street, Dublin 2, Ireland.)
Peter McAdam () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specification of the Italian model follows closely that of the Area-Wide Model (AWM) and indeed the other MCM country blocks (in terms of specification and accounting framework). The MCM is a quarterly estimated structural macroeconomic model that treats the economy in a relatively closed manner. It has a long-run classical equilibrium with a vertical Phillips curve but with some short-run frictions in price/wage setting and factor demands. Consequently, activity is demand-determined in the short-run but supply-determined in the longer run with employment having converged to a level consistent with an exogenously given level of equilibrium unemployment. The precise properties of the model are illustrated using a number of standard variant simulations. JEL Classification: C3, C5, E1, E2.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 660.

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Length: 70 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060660

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Related research
Keywords: Macro-econometric Modelling Italy.

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress in the US: A Normalized Supply-Side System Approach," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_030, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Alpo Willman & Angel Estrada, 2002. "The spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model," Working Paper Series 149, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Frédéric Boissay & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2005. "The French block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 456, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Igor Vetlov & Thomas Warmedinger, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 654, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabio Moneta & Rasmus Rüffer, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 671, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Annette Kamps, 2006. "The euro as invoicing currency in international trade," Working Paper Series 665, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bernd Schnatz, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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