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The impact of ECB monetary policy decisions and communication on the yield curve

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Author Info
Claus Brand () (Corresponding author: European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Daniel Buncic () (School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney Australia.)
Jarkko Turunen () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

We analyse high-frequency changes in the euro area money market yield curve on dates when the ECB regularly sets and communicates decisions on policy interest rates to construct different indicators of monetary policy news relating to policy decisions and to central bank communication. The indicators show that ECB communication during the press conference may result in significant changes in market expectations of the path of monetary policy. Furthermore, our results suggest that these changes have a significant and sizeable impact on medium to long-term interest rates. JEL Classification: E43, E58.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 657.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060657

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Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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Related research
Keywords: Money market rates; yield curve; ECB; central bank communication.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen & Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: An international comparison," Working Paper 2005/7, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2005. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers? Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-70, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Marie Musard-Gies, 2005. "Do ECB's statements steer short-term and long-term interest rates in the euro zone?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Explaining monetary policy in press conferences," Working Paper Series 767, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Helge Berger & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Monetary policy in the media," Working Paper Series 679, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Özer Karagedikli & Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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