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The German block of the ESCB multi-country model

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Author Info
Igor Vetlov () (Bank of Lithuania, Totoriu 4, LT-01121 Vilnius, Lithuania.)
Thomas Warmedinger () (Corresponding author: European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical framework, the German model has also some unique features for instance with regard to the modelling of the investment components, imports and employment. The paper provides a brief overview of the theoretical framework of the model, its estimation results, and a discussion of the dynamic model properties. The model is primarily used for preparing quarterly projections for the German economy as well as for policy analysis. JEL Classification: C3, C5, E1, E2.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 654.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060654

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Keywords: Macro-econometric Modelling; Germany.;

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  1. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Basar-Ökonomie Deutschland - Exportweltmeister oder Schusslicht?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(06), pages 03-42, 09. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2005. "Consumption, Wealth and Business Cycles in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Elena Angelini & Antonello D‘Agostino & Peter McAdam, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 660, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dieter Nautz & Juliane Scharff, 2005. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability in a Low Inflation Country: Empirical Evidence for Germany," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 507-523, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Matteo Ciccarelli & Elena Angelini & Frédéric Boissay, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 646, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004. "The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  11. Frédéric Boissay & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2005. "The French block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 456, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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