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Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution

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Author Info
Paul Levine () (University of Surrey - Department of Economics, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, United Kingdom.)
Peter McAdam () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Joseph Pearlman () (London Metropolitan University, Department of Economics, Finance and International Business, 31Jewry Street, London EC3N 2EY, United Kingdom.)

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Abstract

We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely to be forward-looking and pre-emptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based-rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following 'Calvo-type' inflation-forecast-based(IFB)interest rate rules which depend on a discounted sum of current and future rates of inflation. Such rules might be regarded as both within the legal frame- works, and potentially mimicking central bankers' practice. We find that Calvo-type IFB interest rate rules are first - less prone to indeterminacy than standard rules with a finite forward horizon. Second, for such rules in difference form, the indeterminacy problem disappears altogether. Third, optimized forms have good stabilization properties as they become more forward-looking, a property that sharply contrasts that of standard IFB rules. Fourth, they appear data coherent when incorporated into a well-known estimated DSGE model of the Euro-area. JEL Classification: E52; E37; E58.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 643.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060643

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Keywords: Inflation-forecast-based interest rate rules Calvo-type interest rate rules.

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  3. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  5. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fiorella De Fiore & Zheng Liu, 2002. "Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules," Working Paper Series 173, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:85-110 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Batini, Nicoletta & Justiniano, Alejandro & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2006. "Robust inflation-forecast-based rules to shield against indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1491-1526. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  13. Nicoletta Batini & Joseph Pearlman, 2002. "Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules," Discussion Papers 08, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 1999. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  16. Vestin, David, 2006. "Price-level versus inflation targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1361-1376, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vasco Gabriel & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2008. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a `Calvo-type' rule," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0508, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2007. "State-dependency and firm-level optimization - a contribution to Calvo price staggering," Working Paper Series 806, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Argov, Eyal & Binyamini, Alon & Elkayam, David & Rozenshtrom, Irit, 2007. "A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel," MPRA Paper 4784, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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