A factor risk model with reference returns for the US dollar and Japanese yen bond markets
AbstractThis paper develops a new methodology for simulating fixed-income return distributions. It is shown that a traditional factor risk model, when augmented with reference returns, is capable of generating visually consistent return distributions for a broad range of fixed income instruments such as government and nongovernment instruments in the US dollar and Japanese yen bond markets. The reference returns result from a regime-switching Nelson-Siegel yield curve model following Bernadell, Coche and Nyholm (2005). Empirical results are encouraging: simulated distributions exhibit most characteristics observed in the fixed income markets such as non-normal right-skewed distributions for short maturity instrument while instruments with longer maturity are closer to being normally distributed. JEL Classification: C15, C32, C53, G11, G15
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0641.
Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-07-28 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-07-28 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-SEA-2006-07-28 (South East Asia)
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