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Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?

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Author Info
Domenico Giannone () (Free University of Brussels (VUB/ULB), European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES), Ave. Franklin D Roosevelt, 50 - C.P. 114, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium.)
Lucrezia Reichlin () (Free University of Brussels (VUB/ULB), European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES), Ave. Franklin D Roosevelt, 50 - C.P. 114, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium.)

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Abstract

This paper asks two questions. First, can we detect empirically whether the shocks recovered from the estimates of a structural VAR are truly structural? Second, can the problem of nonfundamentalness be solved by considering additional information? The answer to the first question is “yes” and that to the second is “under some conditions”. JEL Classification: C32; C33; E00; E32; O3.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 632.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060632

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Related research
Keywords: Identification; information; invertibility; structural VAR.;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas Sargent, 2005. "A, B, C’s, (and D’s) for understanding VARs," Working Paper 2005-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Staff Report 364, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1995. "Dynamic Common Factors in Large Cross-Sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 1285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2006. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Working Papers 12353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "VAR analysis, nonfundamental representations, blaschke matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 307-325, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the black box - structural factor models with large gross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kari O. E. Alho & Nuutti Nikula, 2006. "Productivity, Empoyment and Taxes - Evidence on the Potential Trade-offs and Impacts in the EU," Discussion Papers 1054, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," ECARES Working Papers 2008_033, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining the Great Moderation - it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series 865, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the black box - structural factor models with large gross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alfred A Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kari Alho & Nuutti Nikula, 2007. "Productivity, Employment and Taxes - A SVAR Analysis of Trade-offs and Impacts," Discussion Papers 1074, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Annette Kamps, 2006. "The euro as invoicing currency in international trade," Working Paper Series 665, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 175-192. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Gregor Bäurle, 2008. "Priors from DSGE Models for Dynamic Factor Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0803, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2009. "Noncausal vector autoregression," Research Discussion Papers 18/2009, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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