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Long-run money demand in the new EU Member States with exchange rate effects

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  • Dreger, Christian
  • Reimers, Hans-Eggert
  • Roffia, Barbara

Abstract

Generally speaking, money demand models represent a natural benchmark against which monetary developments can be assessed. In particular, the existence of a well-specified and stable relationship between money and prices can be perceived as a prerequisite for the use of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. In this study a money demand analysis in the new Member States of the European Union (EU) is conducted using panel cointegration methods. A well-behaved long run money demand relationship can be identified only if the exchange rate as part of the opportunity cost is included. In the long-run cointegrating vector the income elasticity exceeds unity. Moreover, over the whole sample period the exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar turn out to be significant and a more appropriate variable in the money demand than the euro exchange rate. The present analysis is of importance for the new EU Member States as they are expected to join in the future years the euro area, where money is deemed to be highly relevant - within the two-pillar monetary strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB) - in order to detect risks to price stability over the medium term. JEL Classification: C23, E41, E52

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0628.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060628

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Keywords: exchange rate; Money demand; new EU member states; Panel Cointegration;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Turkish Money Demand, Revisited: Some Implications For Inflation And Currency Substitution Under Structural Breaks," Bogazici Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 107-124.
  2. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "Dynamic Modelling of the Demand for Money in Latvia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 703, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Levent KORAP & Metin YILDIRIM, 2012. "Testing the Lucas Critique for the Turkish Money Demand Function," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(318), pages 57-82.
  4. Ponomarenko, Alexey & Vasilieva, Elena & Schobert, Franziska, 2012. "Feedback to the ECB's monetary analysis: the Bank of Russia's experience with some key tools," Working Paper Series 1471, European Central Bank.
  5. Sahar Bahmani & Ali Kutan, 2010. "How stable is the demand for money in emerging economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3307-3318.
  6. Afees Salisu & Idris Ademuyiwa & Basiru Fatai, 2013. "Modelling the Demand for Money in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 635-647.
  7. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Modelling anti-inflationary monetary targeting: with an application to Romania," Working Paper Series 1186, European Central Bank.
  8. Kumar, Saten & Chowdhury, Mamta & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2010. "Demand for Money in the Selected OECD Countries: A Time Series Panel Data Approach and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 22204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
  10. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "OLong-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 0237, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  11. Horváth, Roman & Komárek, Luboš & Rozsypal, Filip, 2011. "Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 523-536.
  12. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1012-1017, September.
  13. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "Money Demand in Estonia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 675, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  14. Lee, Chien Chiang & Chang, Chun Ping, 2012. "The Demand for Money in China: A Reassessment Using the Bounds Testing Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 74-94, March.
  15. Ruxanda, Gheorghe & Botezatu, Andreea, 2008. "Spurious Regression And Cointegration. Numerical Example: Romania’S M2 Money Demand," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 51-62, September.
  16. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
  17. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Modeling Turkish M2 broad money demand: a portfolio-based approach using implications for monetary policy," MPRA Paper 19703, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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