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Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach

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  • Welz, Peter

Abstract

This paper analyses the empirical performance of a New Keynesian stickyprice model with delayed effects of monetary impulses on inflation and output for the German pre-EMU economy. The model is augmented with rule-ofthumb behaviour in consumption and price setting. Using recently developed Bayesian estimation techniques, endogenous persistence is found to play a dominant role in consumption whereas forward-looking behaviour is greater for inflation. The model’s dynamics following a monetary shock and a preference shock are comparable to those of an identified VAR model. JEL Classification: E43, E52, C51

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0621.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060621

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Keywords: Bayesian estimation; DSGE-Model; identified VAR; predetermined expectations;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Eric Mayer & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Bank Behaviour and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 98, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Henzel, Steffen & Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "The price puzzle revisited: Can the cost channel explain a rise in inflation after a monetary policy shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 268-289, June.
  4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Mayer, Eric & Hülsewig, Oliver & Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "The Price Puzzle Revisited : Can the Cost Channel explain a Rise in Inflation after a Monetary Shock?," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 74, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  6. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Mayer, Eric & Grimm, Oliver, 2008. "Countercyclical taxation and price dispersion," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 78, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  8. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2007. "State-dependency and firm-level optimization: a contribution to Calvo price staggering," Working Paper Series 0806, European Central Bank.

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