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Global financial transmission of monetary policy shocks

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Author Info
Michael Ehrmann () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

The paper shows that US monetary policy has been an important determinant of global equity markets. Analysing 50 equity markets worldwide, we find that returns fall on average around 3.8% in response to a 100 basis point tightening of US monetary policy, ranging from a zero response in some to a reaction of 10% or more in other countries, as well as significant cross-sector heterogeneity. Distinguishing different transmission channels, we find that in particular the transmission via US and foreign short-term interest rates and the exchange rate play an important role. As to the determinants of the strength of transmission to individual countries, we test the relevance of their macroeconomic policies and the degree of real and financial integration, thus linking the strength of asset price transmission to underlying trade and asset holdings, and find that in particular the degree of global integration of countries – and not a country’s bilateral integration with the United States – is a key determinant for the transmission process. JEL Classification: F36; F30; G15.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 616.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060616

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Related research
Keywords: Global financial markets; monetary policy; transmission; financial integration; United States; advanced economies; emerging market economies.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Cipriani & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2007. "Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center," Working Papers 212007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Claudio Morana, 2008. "International stock markets comovements: the role of economic and financial integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 333-359, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joshua Hausman & Jon Wongswan, 2006. "Global asset prices and FOMC announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 886, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Ernst Konrad, 2009. "The impact of monetary policy surprises on asset return volatility: the case of Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 111-135, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rasmus Rüffer & Livio Stracca, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "FOMC Communication and Emerging Equity Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200923, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Stock Markets Comovements: the Role of Economic and Financial Integration," ICER Working Papers 25-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Joao Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 205-218. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Lucia Cuadro Sáez & Marcel Fratzscher & Christian Thimann, 2007. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Working Paper Series 724, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Paolo Vitale, 2006. "A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 629, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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